TRENDING NFL injury tracker live updates Ja out at least 4 weeks New head for D-Wade statue Brewers' championship parade Fantasy Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Story by Story by UFC Vegas 123 preview and predictions: Can Tom Nolan take Renato Moicano's spot on Halloween? Drake Riggs Uncrowned Fri, October 30, 2026 at 7:34 PM UTC · 6 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement The lightweight division takes center stage this Saturday as the UFC returns to its Meta Apex for UFC Vegas 123.
Veteran contender Renato Moicano looks to build on the momentum of his rebound win over Chris Duncan at his last Apex appearance in April. After Moicano lost out on a rematch against Brian Ortega due to Ortega's withdrawal, rising prospect Tom Nolan stepped in to fill the void, setting the stage for a battle of ranked lightweights.
We might as well stop giving out pre-fight grades to these Apex fight nights, specifically, because they're practically all the same at this point — and that "same" isn't exactly anything to get hyped about.
👑 UFC Vegas 123's lineup Crown grade: F. 👑
Renato Moicano showed he's not ready to be a stepping stone just yet in his last fight.
Yes, Nolan wasn't the original choice for Moicano in this impromptu headliner. But boy, does it highlight how much the UFC views the Brazilian as a gatekeeper at this stage.
That's not exactly unfair, though. Moicano, 37, while unlikely to ever reach another title fight, is being given matchups that will make his goal of fighting out the final three bouts of his UFC contract reachable at a quicker pace. Still, knocking off prospects and up-and-comers effectively proves nothing for Moicano, other than showing he's still at the same level we've always known from him as a capable, durable, middle-of-the-pack grappler.
Nolan, 26, has righted the ship since his upset loss to Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut. In each of his five straight wins since, Nolan has looked better than he did in his last, refining his technique and approach against more experienced opponents. That being said, he hasn't been paired against a submission artist of Moicano's capabilities.
Expect Nolan to look good on the feet, landing shots aplenty until Moicano finds a takedown and brings the fight into his world. We might not give Moicano enough credit for his overall brutality on the ground either, because it's easy to forget what he did to Benoit Saint Denis. But make no mistake, if he gets to work from top positions, you're in trouble.
Just as Randy Brown seemed to be putting it all together, he ran into — [checks notes] —Bryan Battle?
OK, I was at Brown's split decision loss to Battle and stand by it being one of the worst decisions of 2024. Luckily for "Rudeboy," he rebounded in a fun Fight of the Night performance against Nicolas Dalby, scoring the second-round knockout. Since then, he's fallen short to the likes of Gabriel Bonfim and Kevin Holland. While the Bonfim loss was surprising in how it played out, the result was at least understandable in terms of where both men stand on the welterweight ladder. Holland, however, was not.
Smith, 30, has been a wrecking ball , finishing all four of his UFC opponents thus far. The experience gap is strongly against him here, but so far it hasn't mattered for Smith — he carries a serious power factor that no one in the UFC has been able to overcome. Pair that with his great speed, and Smith should have Brown in all sorts of trouble.
We love the flyweight division around these parts. Truly. But you can't convince me this wouldn't be a curtain-jerker fight on a numbered event.
I mean, just looking at the numbers, these guys are 4-11 (1 NC) combined in their past eight fights each.
This fight is effectively striker vs. grappler, though — and all it comes down to is whether Osbourne can land on Durden before he gets pulled to the mat. When it comes to getting knocked out, Durden is pretty good at surviving finishing blows, but he often gets tagged and hurt. That has led to submission losses more than TKOs.
Damage-wise, Durden has taken more in his recent stretch. And given Osbourne's power, that doesn't bode well for the American.
Luana Santos is ready to win the Santos battle.
Santos is winning this one. End of story.
If it feels like forever since Yana Santos last fought, it's probably because it's been a full year and she generally competes only once a year. But despite that, she's put together a strong three-fight win streak of stalled momentum with performances over Macy Chiasson, Miesha Tate and Chelsea Chandler.
Luana Santos, likewise, enters this bout on a three-fight win streak of her own. So no matter what, a Santos will have won four in a row once UFC Vegas 123 is all said and done.
Although Yana has better name value in her three wins, Luana's could be argued as more impressive against fresher, younger opposition. Aside from that, Luana has only lost to Casey O'Neill in the UFC, and there's no shame in that.
I've always been a Yana supporter since her run in Invicta FC. She's a very solid distance striker, somewhat akin to Holly Holm with a more aggressive pace. It helps that they trained together. (They even eventually fought.) Her inactivity is concerning though, and against an aggressive grappler like Luana, Yana will be pushed to her limits, forced to consistently fight off submissions whenever she's taken down.
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani may have one of the greatest names in MMA today, but make no mistake, the man's a gamer. He's been a fun striker to watch so far, but his strong grappling and BJJ base may play right into Farman Hasanov's game, as he likes to use his wrestling to put on smothering performances.
The fight feels somewhat odd, given the experience gap between the two. Hasanov is a solid undefeated prospect, but this matchup is made for Lebosnoyani.
Looking at this card, you'd probably have no idea the UFC recently signed a talented, undefeated, 12-0 double-champ prospect. That's because Lucia Szabova is buried on the prelims of a lackluster Apex card, opening the event against Tainara Lisboa. The former Oktagon bantamweight and flyweight queen is an excellent addition to the women's 125-pound division, where she'll debut on Saturday. Sadly, the UFC doesn't seem to care, so I'm here to tell you her fight is the only one worth your viewing attention on these prelims.
Francis Marshall (-210) def. Dakota Hope (+175)
Rodrigo Sezinando (-175) def. Theodor Berggren (+145)
Julian Erosa (+135) def. Lee Jeong-yeong (-160)
Zachary Reese (-360) def. Mickey Gall (+280)
Joseph Kropschot (-350) def. Nick Klein (+275)
Talita Alencar (+240) def. Piera Rodriguez (-300)
Lucia Szabová (-750) def. Tainara Lisboa (+525)
Source: Sports
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